My basic rating is derived from comparing a team’s performance against a given opponent compared to that opponent's “normal” game. For instance, if [Team A] is averaging a +10 scoring margin for the season, and [Team B] beats [A] by 7 – we call that a +17 for [B]. In English – [B] did 17 points better against [A] than they are used to.
All of these “game scores” are averaged and yields the basic “VsAvg” rating. This rating also contains recency **. More recent games are weighted heavier than games from the early season. Also, extra credit is given for a win -- so winning by 1 is significantly better than losing by 1.
In addition, we calculate a Strength of Schedule for each team based on OppWL%, OppOppWL%, and OppOppOppWL%. This SOS number is added to the “VsAvg” rating to come up with the final rating.
Because the rating is based on scores and margins, it can be used to attempt to predict the margins of coming games.
** For the final NCAA football rankings, recency was removed in order to be representative of the entire season.